Abstract: According to EIA's latest forecast, the price of Brent crude oil will remain at US$7 in the second half of the year, and the spread between the U.S. and Burundi oil will remain at around US$7 this year and next year. It is estimated that US crude oil production will reach 800,000 barreCrude oil market sentimentls per day in 209, and OPEC crude oil production will reach 900,000 barrels per day.
The Economic Times of India stated that during the negotiation process, China and India mainly discussed the possibility of joint oil procurement, how to eliminate infrastructure bottlenecks, promote US crude oil and natural gas to enter the Asian market, and jointly negotiate to reduce the premium of crude oil in the Asian market. Discussed.
A Bloomberg survey showed that crude oil traders and analysts were bullish crude oil prices next week for the second consecutive week. Among the 2 traders and analysts surveyed, 52% were bullish, 6 were bearish 29%, and 4 were bearish 9%.
As for Brent crude oil, Wang Tao said that Brent crude oil is expected to test the support level of US$748 per barrel, and it is likely to fall below this support level of US$75. The above-mentioned support levels are the 68% and 74% prediction levels of the downward C wave starting at $76. A descending channel shows that this wave may eventually extend to $70.9. This wave C may consist of three smaller waves. The second wave marked b has peaked near the $70 resistance level, and the third wave marked c is moving towards 70.9.
Preliminary orders in July decreased by% from June to 6.7 million barrels per day, and the three-month average from May to July was 900,000 barrels per day. Although this figure is still high, it is lower than the average of 20.2 million barrels per day in the same period last year and is comparable to the 206 level.
A brief summary of the spot crude oil market-on Thursday, February 5th, New York time, international oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range near a one-week low. US crude oil monthly Crude oil market sentimentfutures are currently trading at around $50. Although the EIA crude oil inventory announced overnight has fallen sharply, the Fed The interest rate hike was the final word, and the U.S. dollar resurrected soaring all the way. The OPEC monthly report showed an oversupply of crude oil, and oil prices plunged by $5 due to double encirclement and suppression. As the Fed’s interest rate hike helped the U.S. dollar strengthen, OPEC’s monthly report was biased towards the negative, monthly crude oil production reached a new high, and the supply expectations of non-OPEC oil-producing countries in 207 were raised. If oil-producing countries do not implement production cuts, the oversupply of crude oil will increase. ANZ Bank ANZ said on Thursday that if OPEC and Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries implement an agreement to cut production by nearly 800,000 barrels per day, the oil market will enter a substantial supply shortage in the first quarter of 207. This may push oil prices far above $60 a barrel early next year. Although traders said that it is still uncertain whether OPEC and other oil-producing countries will implement production cuts, the tight oil market will also be the result of years of decline in new output investment, because operators are reducing costs to cope with low oil prices. RystadEnergy Oilfield Services Research Vice President Audun Martinsen said that 207 will be the third year of investment decline, and the decline is expected to be %. Previously, it had to go back to the 980s to see the decline in investment for three consecutive years. However, Chuanyun reminded that the U.S. dollar is currently at a 14-year high, and the previous OPEC monthly reports and IEA monthly reports have reflected that the monthly output of oil-producing countries continues to rise, and there is still a long way to go to balance the supply of the oil market, which makes market confidence continue. Frustrated. Chuanyun believes that the mid-line oil price is more optimistic, but there is still some downside action for oil prices this week; from the perspective of the trend, short-term US oil may rebound moderately. Pay attention to the resistance near the 0-day moving average of $527 and the 0-day moving average of $572. If the rebound is blocked, U.S. oil will further test the support near $50. The low of $46 on February 8 is where further support lies. Spot crude oil technical analysis-intraday oil prices rebounded slightly and returned to $5. In terms of technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands are open, and oil prices are running between the upper and middle rails of the Bollinger Bands. Oil prices have fallen below the 5-day moving average and the 0-day moving average to suppress them. The MACD indicator in the secondary chart crosses the golden cross closer, the red volume can shrink and the bulls weaken; On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands closed, oil prices fell below the middle rail, moving between the middle and lower rails, and the moving average crossed a dead cross downward to suppress. The MACD indicator in the secondary chart crossed dead crosses, green kinetic energy increased, and short positions were obvious; in summary, In terms of technical indicators, long positions have weakened and short positions are obvious. Intraday oil prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that the U.S. market will continue to peak, but the oversupply will still suppress the rise in oil prices. Operationally, it is recommended to rebound and short.